Haliburton’s Moment, Holmgren’s Rise: 4 Keys as NBA Finals Shift to Indiana

The NBA Finals return to Indianapolis for the first time in a quarter-century, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the series tied 1-1 after Oklahoma City punched back in Game 2, Indiana’s hopes now rest on homecourt magic—and on Tyrese Haliburton seizing the moment.

Here are four pivotal factors to watch in Game 3 (Wednesday, 8:30 ET, ABC) as the Finals resume at Gainbridge Fieldhouse:

1. Win the Non-SGA Minutes

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the motor that drives Oklahoma City. The Thunder have outscored the Pacers in both his minutes and his rest periods—something Indiana simply cannot allow to continue.

The blueprint is there. In Game 1, Indiana was +4 during the 8:26 SGA was on the bench. In Game 2, that edge disappeared. Whether it’s pressuring secondary ballhandlers like Jalen Williams or turning defense into early offense, the Pacers must turn these windows into clear advantages. If they can’t capitalize when SGA rests, the math gets ugly fast.

2. Haliburton Must Be Alpha

This series demands more than orchestration—it needs domination. Haliburton has been steady, but not decisive, scoring 14 and 17 points on just 13 shots in each of the first two games. Most concerning? He hasn’t attempted a free throw yet in the series.

When Haliburton scores 20+ this postseason, the Pacers are 7-1. Fewer than that? Just 6-4. He needs to push into the paint, get to the line, and impose his scoring will to bend OKC’s defense. He doesn’t need to become a volume shooter overnight, but he does need to be more aggressive, especially in transition and off pick-and-rolls.

3. Holmgren’s Defense Has Layers

Chet Holmgren bounced back in Game 2 with a nuanced defensive performance that stretched far beyond his box score. The 7-footer disrupted Indiana’s rhythm by switching effectively, contesting shots without fouling, and acting as a roaming deterrent in OKC’s fluid coverages.

With Isaiah Hartenstein often sharing the floor, Holmgren’s ability to defend in space and still influence rim attacks gives the Thunder unusual defensive versatility. He’s becoming a central figure in this series—not just for his length, but for his feel and timing.

4. Home Whistle or Same Story?

Foul disparities are drawing attention. Through two games, OKC has been called for 39 fouls and attempted 57 free throws, converting 50. Indiana? 47 fouls, 47 attempts, just 34 makes. That 16-point free throw differential nearly mirrors the 15-point margin separating the teams across Games 1 and 2.

Pacers fans believe the Thunder’s physical defense was given too much leeway in OKC. Will that shift in Indy? The Gainbridge Fieldhouse crowd is ready to influence the narrative—and perhaps the officiating tone.

Bottom Line:

The Pacers need urgency, especially from Haliburton. They can’t afford to lose the minutes SGA sits. And if they don’t start controlling the physical tone of play and making Holmgren uncomfortable, OKC’s talent and depth may start to pull away.

Game 3 isn’t must-win—technically—but spiritually? It just might be.